Worldwide consumption of coffee has doubled since 1990, with no sign of slowing. We currently drink 3 billion cups a day and if trends continue that figure is likely to double by 2050. But climate change is making coffee cultivation increasingly difficult.
The four most important producers Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Indonesia will have to contend with a significant reduction in the areas suitable for productive cultivation in the medium or long term. Meanwhile, Argentina, Uruguay, China and the US are finding they can now grow coffee plants but not quickly enough to make up the shortfalls.
The Arabica plant accounts for 56% of global production. It is mainly grown in South America and provides the highest quality coffee. Most of the remaining production (43%) is derived from the Robusta plant, which is grown in Asia. It is used to manufacture instant coffee, among other things.
Rising temperatures, which affect the plants’ growth, will change these figures. Because of climate change, the most suitable cultivation areas will decrease by more than 50% by 2050. Although new growing areas will be theoretically possible, a coffee bush only bears its first fruit three to four years after planting. This makes rapid adaptation to climate change difficult.
Also, 70% of coffee producers are small farmers who are often already living on the edge of poverty. It will be almost impossible for them to make the necessary investments to adapt, such as planting more resistant varieties or installing an irrigation system.
In the medium term, the breeding of new, climate-resistant coffee plants could be the main way to counteract a decline in global production. Researchers are pinning their hopes on crossing Arabica and Robusta with other coffee plants. In Africa, experiments are being carried out with the coffee plant Excelsa, which had fallen out of fashion because it produces relatively small coffee beans. It was crossed with Robusta and has recently been cultivated directly again. There are also more than 120 wild coffee varieties that could be used for crossbreeding. World Coffee Research – the nonprofit research organization of the global coffee industry – has called for an additional annual investment of around $450 million in research to ensure a sufficient global supply of coffee in the future.
Source: National Geographic, NZZ.
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